Recently, an industry viral news broke the originally dull polyester market! Can the production reduction of many big factories really stimulate the demand for filament?

In May, multiple sets of polyester devices were stopped and repaired, mainly Rongsheng polyester filament 1 million tons in early May, Hengyi polyester filament 600,000 tons, Jiangyin China Resources polyester bottle sheet 600,000 tons, a total reduction of 2.2 million tons of devices, the three sets of devices have no restart plan in May, and Jiangyin New Materials parked 300,000 tons of polyester bottle sheet devices last month are expected to increase. The polyester loss in the month is expected to be 125,000 tons. The PTA end of the main raw material of polyester, 5 sets of device changes in May, of which 3 sets of maintenance, a set of short stop, a set of restart, in general, the monthly loss of PTA is expected to be 452,800 tons, the corresponding polyester demand loss is 387,100 tons, the maintenance loss is generally more than the loss of polyester, so the main raw material of polyester in May PTA support expectations.

The cost is expected to be strong, but the polyester filament in the factory announced after the overhaul, the price fell against the trend, on the one hand by the downstream May gradually into the off-season, on the other hand by the inventory pressure, the current low filament mainstream factory inventory more than 20-30 days, the end of the industry has concentrated to the warehouse, but May demand is expected to be weak, weaving orders in June orders received less overall, Drag down later demand expectations, in order to prevent off-season inventory pressure is too large, the current factory to warehouse.

In summary, since May Xiaoshan area due to boiler transformation, device failure and other reasons led to the parking of polyester filament part of the device, involving 1.475 million tons/year, the industry's overall capacity utilization rate fell below 90%, down to 87.4%, the supply of small reduction, and as of now there is no new domestic capacity to put on the market, so the supply side of the market trend, However, because the previous polyester filament experienced a long period of high capacity expansion cycle, the industry oversupply situation has not improved.

Supply and demand environment has not improved, polyester filament prices in nearly three years of low, at the beginning of the manufacturer's attitude is quite optimistic, and inventory pressure is not large, enterprises "light load", price shocks rise, with the gradual decline in terminal demand, enterprise inventory pressure will increase, "bag for safety" mentality under the guidance of polyester filament manufacturers have run goods, market transaction focus concussion down. In the second quarter, the maintenance news of raw materials is more concentrated, boosting the confidence of manufacturers, but the cost end did not rise as scheduled, the polyester filament is weak, and the market continues to weaken.

May Day holiday, some downstream users parking holiday, bomb, weaving and other industries to open a small decline in the probability, but because the current price of raw silk is at a low point, so after the holiday manufacturers device short stop reply, local open probability slightly increased, but downstream users expected to be cautious, more just need to restock, polyester filament market is still lukewarm. In summary, the situation of the long-short game in the polyester filament market continues, and the space for enterprises to explore up and down is limited.

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