It is now in March, the most lively season of the year in the textile market. But for the textile industry, it feels coolness. Visiting the gathering places of the textile industry, the scene of the busy traffic in the past disappeared, and even some markets were closed due to the epidemic.

Judging from past experience, the textile industry has always been divided into off-peak seasons, and now March and April are in the textile peak season. But in this year's peak season, textile bosses are in a panic. In the past peak seasons, everyone could fight price wars and grab customer orders, but this year's peak season has no orders to grab, not even the qualifications to fight price wars. What is even more frightening is that many textile people are pessimistic about the market outlook, and market confidence is slowly being eroded.

This year's textile peak season is a little panic, and the tide of production shutdown is sweeping the textile industry chain

1. PTA: Some factories have successively released news of overhaul and negative reduction

Since the end of February, due to the continuous low processing fees, some PTA factories have successively released news of maintenance and negative reduction. At present, the restart time of Yisheng Ningbo's 2 million tons has been delayed to be determined. The two sets of Yisheng New Materials have maintained one and a half operation. Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million tons has dropped to 80% in early March. The 2.5 million tons of Line 4 of Li Petrochemical began to be overhauled on March 10; in addition, the 650,000 tons of Yangzi Petrochemical and the 1.25 million tons of Zhuhai Ineos were scheduled to be overhauled in late March. Schedule an overhaul.

At present, the maintenance of PTA units is gradually becoming clear, and some units of Yisheng have started to be overhauled one after another. Hengli also has an overhaul plan from March to April. Fuhaichuang also reduced its burden in early March, the supply side has begun to shrink, and the market has gradually begun to go to the warehouse. There are many maintenance and repairs of PTA factories, and the capacity utilization rate has been at the low point of the year, but the supply-side compression has not changed the two-week losing streak of the disk. On the one hand, it suffers from cost collapse, and on the other hand, there is insufficient support on the demand side. Since PX squat is larger than PTA, its processing fee has recovered from the previous month, but it has not gotten rid of the loss dilemma. Considering the domestic multi-point epidemic to suppress demand and shipments, the downstream buying and falling sentiment is not good.

2. This drop has fallen out of polyester profits, and mainstream polyester factories may have a collective intention to reduce production

Also, as crude oil fluctuated and fell, the cost of polyester upstream PTA fell, giving up some profits to polyester. However, due to no increase in terminal orders, polyester production and sales were flat, and polyester factories were operating at a high rate. There will be negative pressure in the future. Recently, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned that the mainstream polyester factories may have a collective intention to reduce production in the near future. At present, some polyester factories such as Hengyi Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, and Rongsheng Petrochemical have maintenance plans in the middle and late March, but according to data, the current The polyester start-up load is around 93-94%, and the polyester inventory is still relatively high.

3. Weaving clothing: the decline will be significantly expanded at the end of March and the beginning of April

Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has spread in many places, and various regions have increased prevention and control measures and insisted on "dynamic clearing", which has a certain impact on the production, transportation, sales of some enterprises and the business of some traders in the textile market. Following the suspension of Dongguan Dalang Wool Trading Center and Hangzhou Sijiqing Clothing Street, Huzhou Zhili Children's Clothing City and Zhili International Textile City also announced that they will be closed indefinitely.

It is also understood that weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been reducing production and burden in the past week or two. As of March 16, the comprehensive start-up load of looms is less than 70%, and it may drop to less than 60% before and after the Qingming Festival. "It turned out that business was relatively good in March and April, and now it has to be reduced, indicating that the orders are very poor." Industry experts mentioned that the operating rate of weaving factories is currently declining slightly, and the decline will be significantly expanded by the end of March and early April, or reduced by one. In the case of frequent fluctuations in the raw material market, the downstream will only continue to wait and see in the short term.

The price reduction and promotion did not cause the factory's desire to purchase goods, and the vicious circle of "production reduction tide" hurt all links in the industry chain

The driving force behind this round of rising polyester prices and raw material prices is the trend of international oil prices. However, the risk of the epidemic, high oil prices and high transportation costs all have an impact on the orders placed by terminal apparel and textile enterprises. In the case of inventory, low profit, and low demand, enterprises may start production reduction mode. The reporter learned that at present, most of the weaving factories maintain basic orders, and the overall atmosphere is dull. The recent price reduction of polyester has not caused the factory's desire to purchase goods. In terms of polyester production capacity, if the company starts equipment maintenance or reduces production, the polyester output will be reduced next week. has decreased.

The current "reduction tide" of the textile industry chain is a vicious circle that hurts all links in the textile industry chain. The textile foreign trade business is in trouble. In the current situation that the terminal market of the textile industry has been sluggish for a long time, the joint boost of domestic and foreign demand may be the best way to break the situation!

With the opening of the market this week, the difficult month of March is about to come to an end. At present, is the beginning of April in hard mode or easy mode? The early dip in the polyester industry can be seen as the follow-up of the energy and chemical sector to the cost collapse caused by the collapse of crude oil.

The editor thinks that the procurement node and cycle of the polyester industry must start from two aspects, one is the recovery of the demand side, and the other is the stabilization of the cost side. At present, the market has been adjusted for a long time. If it falls again later, the editor thinks that the more opportunity it is, of course, it should be a local opportunity. It’s just that there is no need for blind panic.

Nothing can be more eye-catching than Baozhuan. It is still a big era of speculation. The market has entered a sideways stage. Future speculation should be a repeated opportunity!